I have tried to peer into the horizon and picture the world post the COVID-19 crisis. My mind lets me down time and again. My thoughts swing wildly between “this is just a short term crisis” and “this will change the world forever”.  I am not alone.

By the end of the day, it’s really a matter of perspective. If we take a historical view, this is just one of those phases that mankind faces from time to time. From a historical perspective it might even be classified as a slight glitch rather than a crisis with significant impact. Unless it brings about major changes.

What could those changes be? Is this the beginning of the end: of the globalisation trend, of the EU, of free movement, of privacy, of democracy as we knew it? Or – allow me to dream – could this be the end of Donald Trump’s career?

There is a silver lining to everything: climate change has been put on hold for a while. When the tourist crowds left Venice, the canal waters cleared and dolphins were sighted. When traffic and factories were halted, the air pollution eased in China – just to mention a few of the effects. But will these changes last?

When – if ever- will we go back to traveling as before? Will I continue to travel to my favourite European destinations, which happen to be Italy, Spain and France – all hit badly by COVID-19 – as if nothing happened? Maybe not this or even next year. But probably someday. It’s like 9/11. We all remember it, but life goes on, and so it should. When all this is behind us, be it 2020 or later, which it well may be, travel will help some of my favourite spots in the world build up their economies – Finland included.

I have waded through hundreds of analyses of the financial markets and come out with only one thought. Nobody knows how deep and how long the recession triggered by COVID-19 will be. It depends on how many rounds it will take to beat or at least contain the disease. Will there be a shortage of commodities? Will there be inflation and rising interest rates? Will economies bounce back in a V or U-curve or will we experience a L as in a long and painful depression? Again, is this one for the history books like the Great Depression, or just a year to remember like the financial crisis in 2008 or the oil crisis in 1973.

There is nothing new under the sun really; which is why – to top it all – the big oil producers are indulging  in a war perfectly suited for present times: a price war. Non of the parties have to leave their homes for this warfare.

Other things remain the same too, including competitiveness. As the Nordic countries close down frontiers, lock down cities, shut workplaces and schools, and ask people to self-isolate, there is an unofficial, media-driven “Which country got it right” contest going on. If it were a sailing contest, one might say that Sweden has adopted a more aggressive course in search of better wind, while the others have chosen to sail in a pretty close cluster. Time will tell, if the risk proves worth taking for the Swedes. It might depend on the prize you are after. Saving as many lives as you can or finding an acceptable balance between lives saved and the price paid?

No one was prepared for this – with the exception of the South Koreans it seems. Many countries have simulated a coronavirus style pandemic recently, but the South Koreans clearly took better note of the learnings. Other Asian countries have fared better than Europe and the US too. Partly because there is no hesitancy to trample on human rights if needed, which has clearly helped them track down chains of COVID-19 transmission and isolate potential transmitters.

Many judges and juries will convene in homes and offices as well as universities when all this is over; there will be enough hindsight to last us at least until the next crisis.

Whatever happens, I bet Trump has his family covered with a hefty financial relief package, enough masks to last two lifetimes and all the ventilators Cuomo never got. Not to mention arthritis drugs of all sorts, the ones Trump knows will do away with the virus.

I have actually used hydrochloroquine for my arthritis and can vouch for the fact that even in small doses it can have some very nasty side effects. So feel free to try, Donald. Have some on me too.

Some things are certain as far as Finland is concerned: taxes will go up. Being stoic Finns, we will probably all be happy to do our part, if we are still alive and well. And if we aren’t, taxes will be the least of our families’  worries.

One change that is here to stay as far as my own family is concerned is the ordering of home-delivered groceries via the internet. Our banking and media consumption was already predominantly electronic, and my trusty Kindle has saved me from boredom many a time, so no change there.

My partner in life (and chief household chef) has one clear to-do list item. As soon as we are allowed, we will eat out every other day to ensure that the hard hit local restaurants get back on their feet.

But that day is still far away. Now every day is Corona Day instead of Groundhog Day for us.

By the way, how sure are we that we are not just part of a virtual game played by aliens? It’s starting to feel eerily like we could be…