Tag Archives: Russia-Ukraine war

Trust, hope and wishful thinking

Trust is all too easily misplaced, often shattered, and very difficult to regain once lost. It is key to all successful relationships, be they romantic, working or political ones.

There is a fine line between trust and hope.

There are very few things any of us can truly trust will happen (death being one), even if we place our trust in some sources, people, or actions in the hope that we have not misplaced it.

Blind trust is nothing more than a disaster waiting to happen. Whether you trust that a violent spouse will stop hitting you, that an employer, who never gave you a raise, will finally see your value, or that democracy and human rights will soon thrive in Russia; you are  trusting and hoping against reason, which is just wishful thinking bordering on self-deception.

So much trust and hope has been lost lately in the Western world.

We may have trusted that adherence to the rule of law would remain a constant cornerstone of Western democracies –  but that was before Donald Trump.

We may have thought that the world stood a chance of agreeing globally on measures needed to solve climate change issues and promote peace on Earth – but that was before the pandemic taught us that borders could be closed as easily as they were opened, and the war in Ukraine taught us that wars could start and escalate out of control at our door step with little warning.

The loss of trust and hope is a global phenomenon. It is felt all over. African countries are left vulnerable as China, Africa’s largest creditor, tightens lending taps. Suddenly, we are back to “every country for itself”.

The outpour of solidarity and concrete help to countries that face aggressive wars or natural disasters may still give us some hope. But our trust in a brighter future and global co-operation has suffered severe set-backs as hard-fought agreements aimed at safeguarding human rights and peace are being ignored as if they never existed.

We tend to hope against hope, when the alternatives are too gruesome to be considered.

Many Floridians were reminded of this the hard way recently as they hoped that hurricane Ian would not make its way to their home or business; that if it did, it would not be too bad; that even if it was bad, they would be fine because they had survived hurricanes before and were well-prepared; and even if the worst was to happen, they would get the aid they needed. In all too many cases none of these hopes have come true.

I listen to my friends pondering the Russia-Ukraine war, hoping that the Russian people will soon realise  that Putin is not to be trusted. As if most Russians didn’t realise this already. They just aren’t prone to wishful thinking. They see no better alternative in the horizon, so they gravitate towards the known “evil”. It is what they have always done. The Russian people are not prone to rebellion, they are fatalistic. They have seen time and time again that little good comes out of trying to rebel. They do not trust the West anymore than they trust Putin.

I listen to the Western media celebrating the successes of the Ukrainian army and speculating on what a dreadful loss this and that is to the Russian army. Personally, I just see losses on both sides. In addition to the lives lost one both sides, the Russians (and those Ukrainians, who have ended up under Russian rule) are fast losing even the remnants of their human rights. There is no peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine war in sight.

The Chinese are credited with the understanding that even if you are aggressively furthering you own agenda, you should try to do it without actively provoking deep enmity in your counterparts. Cornered enemies are the worst possible enemies. They have little to lose. I find myself acting like the regularly battered wife in search of a why; wondering whether we (the West) did something to provoke the war in Ukraine. Let’s face it, the West has a tendency towards off-putting self-righteousness at times. Can the war really be attributed to a psychopath leader strong enough to convince millions of people that several wrongs make a right?

I opted for the latter explanation as I watched the reactions of the crowd that gathered in Moscow’s Red Square to celebrate the (forced) annexation of four Ukrainian regions to Russia. Many in the crowd could be seen applauding in all seriousness as Russian Putinist actor Ivan Okhlobystin gave the performance of his life as MMFM  a.k.a. Mad Man Frothing at the Mouth. Some additional cheers may have been added when editing the Twitter clip, but the crowd was definitely not protesting.

Okhlobystin, who is famous for quotes like “I would happily put all the gays alive in an oven”, called for a “holy war”, whipping the crowd into action with pearls like: “Fear old world! Deprived of true beauty, true faith, true wisdom; operated by madmen, perverts, satanists! Be afraid, we are coming. Goyda (a cry for immediate action), goyda !!!”.

To be clear, the old world in this scenario is the Western world.

While most of me was appalled by the performance, there was a small part of me that was having a quiet laugh. To a Finn Okhlobystin’s “goyda, goyda” call sounded like someone with a severe head cold hollering “koita, koita” i.e. try, try. Which seems apt, as it’s what the Russians have ended up doing in Ukraine without much success.

Your guess is as good as my guess, when it comes to what happens next. If the Red Square celebrations represent the truth of Russia today, the country is careening towards total unreason. It is ironic that Putin has described the war in Ukraine as a fight against the Nazis. This is not a case of the pot calling the kettle black. It’s the black pot calling the kettle a black pot.

I am in mourning. I mourn a – presently  bygone – world that I had high hopes for; hopes that I am rapidly losing. Yet I recognise that this is not the time to lose hope –  if we do, more will be lost.

We need to continue to do what we can to ensure that the democratic values prove resilient and that global co-operation in key matters is not endangered because of mistrust and fear.

At the same time we need to recognise that each country has its own set of values and a right to build its own future as its people see fit as long as it doesn’t endanger others. I have some trouble buying into the idea that it is up to the West to plan the future of post-Putin Russia. It is up to the Russians to do so. The only thing others can do is aid them in ensuring that such decisions are freely made based on freely accessible true information, not guided by fear and misinformation.

Making and breaking

The signs had been there for some time – and still it was a shock, when Russia started a full-scale war of aggression in the midst of Europe on February 24, 2022. The shock was followed by outrage in the Western world. Then came the need to do something. Anything.

Since Finland has a long border with Russia, my own actions went in two directions. Like so many others, I quickly searched and found ways to aid the Ukrainians financially. Being a Finn, I also immediately looked for ways to prepare for hard times to come; both in terms of economy and security. We Finns like to be prepared for all eventualities.

When this first flurry of activities was over, I sat down and read all I could about the reasons that led to the war in Ukraine. I felt a need to understand, why this happened. It was a need that was shared by many.

Miles of news articles have been written in an attempt to analyse the why’s of the Russia-Ukraine war. There is an abundance of theories.

According to some, Putin is hankering to re-establish the Soviet Union. According to others, he is looking to recreate the Imperial Russia of 1721 or 1914.

Some remind us that Putin has referred to the Christian fascist Ivan Ilyin as his expert on the past. IIyin considered any talk of Ukraine separate from Russia the act of a mortal enemy of Russia. Lev Gumilyov, the anti-semitic co-developer of Eurasianism is also mentioned as one of Putin’s favourite reads.

Others focus on present day mentors such as Kirill, who styles himself as Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus´ (a title that was actually abolished by Peter the Great in 1721 only to resurface in 1917 and 1943). The list of present day mentors is often topped by historian and anthropologist Aleksandr Dugin, who has rhapsodised about an Eurasian empire (including a Turkic-Slavic alliance, which is an interesting tidbit) and espoused fascist views.

The main ideologic thread seems to be ‘Make Russia Great Again’. That being the why, the how often seems to be some form of anti-globalist, anti-Western (as in anti-US) and anti- liberalistic Eurasianism.

All in all this was such a mix of ideologic contradictions that I ended up confused albeit on a higher level with regard to Putin’s goals. Not that it matters. Whatever those goals were at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, there is only one now: to look like a winner at least in his own corner of the world. However many lies and lives it may take.

My history binge did leave me with a clearer view of how privileged I was to have enjoyed a lifetime of peace, democracy and prosperity in my little corner of the world; a world that is full of unscrupulous leaders like Putin, who set little value on anything but their self-aggrandisement.

A thrice divorced friend once commented that it took her a long time to decide to ask for her first divorce. The threshold was high, because it was a jump into something unknown. The second time was much easier as the process itself and most of the end results were familiar by then. By her third divorce she worried that divorce had become a bad habit. A way to solve problems that created new ones.

The parallels to the war in Ukraine are clear. Putin has long been on the path to full-fledged war. No one effectively called him out on his earlier forays into Ukraine. His backing of the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk caused some, but not too many, waves, and the Russian invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea went all too smoothly. Hence war in Europe became a bad habit. One that will create far-reaching negative consequences everywhere, not only in Ukraine and Russia.

Like a wife, who finally recognises her husband for the serial cheater he is, the Western world has finally opened its eyes and recognised Putin for the serial liar he is. The divorce is getting messier by the day. The emotional ties have been broken, but the financial ties are difficult to break.

We each tend to look at the world from our own perspective. It is understandable that the Western world feels that the ‘whole world’ condemns the war Russia wages on Ukraine. In fact it doesn’t. In many parts of the world this is just a war among others.

Some leaders see the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to wage war in their own corner of the world without Western interference. Others see it as a means to justify unjustifiable actions, such as the further exploitation of protected lands that Brazil’s Bolsonaro is pursuing.

Major countries, such as China and India, are performing balancing acts that are embarrassing to watch. Their half-hearted calls for the cessation of violence are a prime example of ‘too little – too late’.

China continues to proclaim itself a great friend of Russia. At the same time it promises humanitarian aid to Ukraine and offers itself up as a peace negotiator. It doesn’t want to be involved and yet it involves itself. China’s strategy is not two-faced; it is so many-faced that one wonders, how the Chinese will keep all faces in line. Nothing would suit China better than to have Russia take the West down a notch and end up totally dependant on China while doing so.

The fact that China only sides with one country – itself – in the long run is not unique. Most countries tend to look after their own interests. But few do it in such a convoluted manner.

I have blogged about China’s treatment of the Uighurs and its forays into mind control, surveillance and social engineering (MCSSE for short). Now I watch Russia going into full MCSSE mode. At the same time China skirts around the truth of the war in Ukraine and edits the information it feeds to its population of 1,4 billion accordingly. Up to this day (the narrative may change) there is no full-scale war in Ukraine as far as the Chinese government is concerned. There is only a Russian military operation related to Donetsk and Luhansk.

I started blogging, when Donald Trump was elected, because I recognised early on that this was a man, who had little respect for democracy and freedom of speech; a man, who thrived on fear and unreason. Still I made fun of his alternative facts. I never thought fake news were here to stay. Sadly, they are actually a key trend (to end all trends?) of our times. In olden days the masses were kept ignorant of any and all facts. Now they are actively fed fully fabricated alternative ones.

It is always a good idea to question and cross-check the things one reads, hears, or thinks one sees. Even those who do their best to check their information get their facts wrong at times.

Some facts, however, are undeniable: Putin started the war against Ukraine – and he didn’t do it to fight nazis or fascists of any kind. His own actions are the closest one gets to fascism in this war. Putin’s army is bombing civilians all over Ukraine. The people of Ukraine never asked for this kind of help. Even the most hard core Putin fans in separatist Donetsk and Luhansk may have a hard time convincing themselves that all is as it should be.

If the goal is to turn back time, Putin has already succeeded. He has turned back the Russian economy; not all the way to 1721, but some estimate even as far as 100 years back, when all is said and done.

I end up with one final thought – the one that has kept the Ukrainians fighting, and will keep me fighting in my own small way: Democracy and freedom of speech are worth fighting for, whatever form that fight might take. My wake-up call was not the Russia-Ukraine war. I woke up to the need to fight the day Donald Trump was elected.